Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation
- Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium
- International Livestock Research Institute, Kenya
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Switzerland
- University of Oklahoma, United States
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Italy
- Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Thailand
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Vietnam
Abstract
Global disease suitability models are essential tools to inform surveillance systems and enable early detection. We present the first global suitability model of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and demonstrate that reliable predictions can be obtained at global scale. Best predictions are obtained using spatial predictor variables describing host distributions, rather than land use or eco-climatic spatial predictor variables, with a strong association with domestic duck and extensively raised chicken densities. Our results also support a more systematic use of spatial cross-validation in large-scale disease suitability modelling compared to standard random cross-validation that can lead to unreliable measure of extrapolation accuracy. A global suitability model of the H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses, a group of viruses that recently spread extensively in Asia and the US, shows in comparison a lower spatial extrapolation capacity than the HPAI H5N1 models, with a stronger association with intensively raised chicken densities and anthropogenic factors.
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Author details
Timothy P Robinson
Funding
National Institutes of Health (1R01AI101028-02A1)
- Madhur S Dhingra
- Jean Artois
- Xiangming Xiao
- Marius Gilbert
United States Agency for International Development (Emerging Pandemic Threats program)
- Scott H Newman
Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BB/L019019/1)
- Timothy P Robinson
Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS (PDR T.0073.13)
- Catherine Linard
- Marius Gilbert
Medical Research Council (ESEI UrbanZoo (G1100783/1))
- Timothy P Robinson
CGIAR (Research Programs on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH) and Livestock)
- Timothy P Robinson
The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
Reviewing Editor
- Colin A Russell, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom
Version history
- Received: July 12, 2016
- Accepted: November 14, 2016
- Accepted Manuscript published: November 25, 2016 (version 1)
- Version of Record published: December 16, 2016 (version 2)
- Version of Record updated: February 23, 2017 (version 3)
- Version of Record updated: March 1, 2017 (version 4)
Copyright
© 2016, Dhingra et al.
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License permitting unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
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Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation
eLife 5:e19571.
https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.19571
Further reading
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Background:
Circulating omega-3 and omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) have been associated with various chronic diseases and mortality, but results are conflicting. Few studies examined the role of omega-6/omega-3 ratio in mortality.
Methods:
We investigated plasma omega-3 and omega-6 PUFAs and their ratio in relation to all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a large prospective cohort, the UK Biobank. Of 85,425 participants who had complete information on circulating PUFAs, 6461 died during follow-up, including 2794 from cancer and 1668 from cardiovascular disease (CVD). Associations were estimated by multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression with adjustment for relevant risk factors.
Results:
Risk for all three mortality outcomes increased as the ratio of omega-6/omega-3 PUFAs increased (all Ptrend <0.05). Comparing the highest to the lowest quintiles, individuals had 26% (95% CI, 15–38%) higher total mortality, 14% (95% CI, 0–31%) higher cancer mortality, and 31% (95% CI, 10–55%) higher CVD mortality. Moreover, omega-3 and omega-6 PUFAs in plasma were all inversely associated with all-cause, cancer, and CVD mortality, with omega-3 showing stronger effects.
Conclusions:
Using a population-based cohort in UK Biobank, our study revealed a strong association between the ratio of circulating omega-6/omega-3 PUFAs and the risk of all-cause, cancer, and CVD mortality.
Funding:
Research reported in this publication was supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institute of Health under the award number R35GM143060 (KY). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.
